My view on Silver

Could there be a possibility that Silver may drop before the ADP report just like it did in Sep? 

I will keep a watch on this. I would want to see how this plays out. 

Here's another chart with another theory taking wars and conflicts in consideration. 

First point is when the Ukraine and Russia war begins. We see Silver reacts to this news and spikes. Later we see a massive drop till September 2022. 

In September we see price rise on the data that Inflation has peaked and in trending down. 

Continution of Hike cycles will depend on the inflation data. Inflation data will have impacts from the conflicts - be it Russia or Ukraine or Israel and Gaza. 

And we may see some price detioration in siver price if war continues longer. 

My view on Crude oil

 In 2023, Crude oil on MCX has made three floors. By the term "floor" what I mean is the level from where the price has taken support and bounced back. 

Now, while we are at it, the news just broke stating Airstrike by U.S. Airforce on Iranian proxies. 

By this, I am expecting Crude to go volatile. Go much higher. 

My View on Silver

 Is the price at the end of the cycle?

This seems to me one of the sharp decline since the beginning of this month.

Economic Data published yesterday was Building Permits which came modestly higher than the forecast, but not higher than the previous one. 

Could this be an indication that it's a start of the strengthening  of economy?

Building Permits would also imply that once the houses are built, then comes the rise in the purchases of home appliances and durables, electronics that goes in the house. 

This could mean that the signs of economic recovery is strengthening and we might start to see Silver falling back unless job data does not support the strength of the economy. 

If we look at the below chart, it will show inverse relationship of Buiding Permits with Silver price. 

When Buiding permit peaked in the month of March and later in October, we saw a sharp decline in the price. 

Today Initial jobless claims and Jobless 4 week average data will be published. 

This might decide the future course of the Silver. 

My Observation on Silver

 

My plan to trade silver. 

In an uptrend enter the trade when  20 days MA crosses or is about to cross 200 MA. 

In this chart we see that it has already touched 4 times. 

So, the question that comes to my mind, what is the maximum time the price has crossed over in uptrend and what's the minimum times the price has crossed over?

Why is this question important?

This will help us to know how many opportunities we can get to add additional units, considering i am only trading 1 unit to begin. 

On Sept 1st these four key data were published. 

• Unemployment Rate 
• Nonfarm Payrolls 
• ISM Manufacturing PMI 
• ISM Manufacturing Prices
• Average Hourly Earnings

Silver took the down trend after this. 

 

In October the price reverses and makes uptrend. 

My observation on Silver

 Silver is still trying to find footing on the ground. The development in the bottom channel is quite interesting. Silver has not broken this channel yet. 

Will this channel prove to be a strong support or will lose the territory is something that I am interested to know. 

Currently, I am not holding any position in Silver. I have decided to sit on the fence until the price gives some assurance which side it wants to lean on. 

My observation on Natgas

 Daily rig counts are falling.

Natgas price took support at 2900 and breaks the resistance of 3000. 

Natgas discovers new resistance at 3050. 

In previous trade, the trading range was between 2900 and 3000. 2900 proved to be a strong support zone. 

With the discovery of new Resistance zone, I am assuming, today Natgas will try to make a new support zone. 

To my assumption, this new support zone will be at 2950. 

And here's my thought process behind it - 

In previous few trading sessions, 2950 has acted as temporary resistance. 

It acted as a resistance on Wed 20th, Wed 27th, Thu 28th, Tue 3rd.

It acted as support on Oct 1st.

So, to my understanding, The new support should be 2950. 

Whether it will be a strong support or weaker one. Only price action will tell us in coming days. 

Ending here.